Putin Is Not Seeking Peace in Ukraine — He's Seeking to Trap the US in Iran

Mar 25

March 25, 2026 | American Ukraine Committee

Russia's war against Ukraine has never been only about Ukraine. According to former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John E. Herbst, Vladimir Putin's strategic goal is to keep the United States off-balance, distracted, and weakened — and Iran is his most useful current instrument toward that end.

In a wide-ranging interview with the Kyiv Post, Herbst — now Senior Director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center — laid out a clear-eyed assessment: Putin is not interested in peace. He is interested in survival, leverage, and America's exhaustion.

Russia's Intelligence Offer: A Calculated Trap

Reports have emerged that Russia offered to stop sharing satellite intelligence and military guidance with Iran in exchange for the United States ending its intelligence support for Ukraine. Ambassador Herbst was unequivocal: "I would be surprised if Russia had not made this offer."

The proposal fits a recognizable pattern. Russia has been providing Iran with satellite imagery, tactical drone expertise, and battlefield guidance derived from its war in Ukraine — a partnership that, as the American Ukraine Committee previously reported, has significantly upgraded Tehran's ability to strike U.S. forces and regional allies. Offering to pause this cooperation is not a peace gesture. It is a bargaining chip — one designed to trade away something Russia can always restart in exchange for permanently degrading Ukraine's defenses.

The reported U.S. rejection of this offer, Herbst suggested, indicates that the Trump administration still recognizes the difference between a tactical concession and a durable peace. That distinction must be protected — which means sanctions on Russia must stay firmly in place. Rewarding Moscow with sanctions relief now, before any real accountability for its aggression, would hand Putin exactly the breathing room his strategy depends on.

Take Action with Your Members of Congress

Your voice matters.

Sanctions on Russia must remain in place until there is full accountability for its aggression against Ukraine. Lifting them prematurely would weaken global security and reward violations of international law.

We urge policymakers to:

Maintain all existing sanctions
Reject any premature easing
Continue coordinated international pressure
Stand firmly with Ukraine

Now is not the time to weaken resolve.

Take action today:

👉 Do Not Lift Sanctions on Russia: https://www.amukr.org/do-not-lift-sanctions-on-russia

Putin's War Is Failing — Which Makes Him More Dangerous

One of Herbst's most significant observations concerns the state of Russia's war effort. He noted that the conflict has now lasted longer than Russia's entire involvement in World War II, and that Putin has achieved little beyond the enormous costs paid since the 2022 full-scale invasion. "His war is not doing very well," Herbst said flatly.

This context matters for understanding Putin's Iran strategy. A leader winning decisively on the battlefield does not need to engineer distractions. Russia's Iran gambit — providing military technology, sharing intelligence, and deepening strategic ties with Tehran — serves a clear purpose: to bog the United States down in a Middle East crisis so that Washington has less bandwidth, fewer resources, and diminished political will to support Ukraine.

China, Herbst noted, shares this interest. Both Beijing and Moscow view the United States as their principal adversary. A prolonged Iran conflict is, in his words, "a pretty good situation for China."

Spoiler, Not Peacemaker

Despite ongoing diplomatic contacts, Herbst was direct about Putin's intentions at the negotiating table. Every peace proposal that Ukraine and President Zelensky have accepted, Russia has rejected. Putin's strategy, Herbst argued, is to "praise Trump at every opportunity, but to say no to every actual peace proposal."

Meanwhile, Russia has continued mass drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The spring offensive is building. The Kremlin, according to Herbst, is now working to cut off not just direct U.S. aid to Ukraine but American military intelligence support — and to stop Western weapons from reaching Ukraine through Europe.

This is not the behavior of a party seeking peace. This is the behavior of a party seeking to win.

Russia Cannot Be Trusted — Including on Iran's Nuclear Material

Reports have also circulated that Russia offered to store Iranian nuclear material as part of a diplomatic arrangement. Herbst dismissed the idea that any such arrangement could be trusted: "I think the question answers itself."

He pointed to Putin's record — denying an imminent invasion of Ukraine days before it happened in February 2022, and falsely claiming that Russian troops were not behind the seizure of Crimea in 2014. "He's a serial liar," Herbst said. The notion that Russia would act as a reliable custodian of Iranian nuclear material — while simultaneously deepening its military partnership with Tehran — strains credibility.

What Would Actually Work

Herbst's prescription for effective diplomacy was straightforward: "Put pressure on Moscow."

Without sustained, escalating pressure — including full enforcement of sanctions, continued military intelligence support for Ukraine, and coordinated international solidarity — Putin has no incentive to negotiate in good faith. The moment pressure eases, he exploits it.

"We need to see constant pressure, new pressure on Russia, so Putin understands he cannot achieve any further gains on the battlefield in Ukraine," Herbst said.

Ukraine's Position Is Stronger Than the Narrative Suggests

Herbst was also quick to push back against any sense of Ukrainian helplessness. Gulf states are actively seeking Ukrainian drone technology and air defense expertise. Arab nations that had been comfortable doing business with Russia are reconsidering those ties because of Moscow's alignment with Iran. "Ukraine always had cards — a year ago and today," he said.

The international landscape is shifting. Russia's entanglement with Iran is not only a threat — it is beginning to cost Moscow relationships it once took for granted.

The Bottom Line

The Russia-Iran axis is not incidental to the Ukraine war — it is central to Putin's global strategy. Russia provides Iran with satellite intelligence and drone upgrades. Iran provides Russia with drone munitions and a welcome distraction for Washington. Both benefit from American exhaustion and Western wavering.

The appropriate response is not to reward this strategy with concessions on sanctions or intelligence support. It is exactly what Herbst prescribed: sustained, coordinated, escalating pressure — until Russia faces a genuine choice between real peace and real consequences. Sanctions are one of the most powerful tools available to enforce that choice. Maintaining them is not stubbornness. It is a strategy.

Your representatives need to hear from you. Urge them to maintain all existing sanctions, reject any premature easing, continue coordinated international pressure, and stand firmly with Ukraine. Now is not the time to weaken resolve.