The election is over and the clock is ticking on the First 132 Days for Ukraine Advocacy.
Congress returns to DC next week for the lame duck session and Jan 4th, 2027 marks the first day of the new Congress. Keep an eye on these six items below to understand how Congress will approach the US-Ukraine relationship.
November 10–11 · Abu Dhabi
Trilateral technical talks — Medinsky for Russia, Umerov for Ukraine, Witkoff and Kushner for the United States. Another round of talks: post-war security arrangements, an energy and maritime ceasefire, prisoner exchanges, the return of abducted children. Over two years, nothing substantial has emerged from any of these talks. Numerous cease-fires have been proposed, but the Russians have violated every one within 24 hours. The US has already waived the sanctions, so without leverage, it is difficult to see how progress is made.
December 11 · Government funding runs, including for the US Military
The US government faces another shutdown over funding. The military budget is a key negotiating point. Sen Graham requested $1.5 trln. Current level is $835bln. Rep Smith, incoming Chair of House Armed Services has called for new budget under $1trln. Other Democrat request less. Military aid to Ukraine is at risk if defense appropriations are delayed or frozen.
Now through January 3 · The PEACE Act's last window
H.R. 4346 cleared House Financial Services 53–1 in July 2025. This is Rp Hill's amendment, with Rep Waters supporting it. Unfortunately, the bill failed to reach the floor. The Rules Committee rejected two attempts to attach it to the NDAA. The bill would direct Treasury to seize frozen Russian sovereign assets in U.S. jurisdiction and transfer them to Ukraine to buy weapons: roughly $5 billion sits at the Fed, and an outside estimate of the full total runs to $47–57 billion.
In order to reach the floor, the suspension calendar needs two-thirds and allows no amendments. An NDAA amendment has to get past a Rules Committee that has already said no twice. Barring that, the bill dies with 119th Congress on January 3rd. From there, it is back to square one in the 120th Congress.
Washington moving first on its own frozen assets is the strongest argument available to the European governments trying to move Belgium.
Mid-December · The European Council and Ukraine's 2027 money
Belgium's veto held at the October summit, blocking roughly €185 billion held at Euroclear. Ukraine's 2027 financing gap is about $78 billion — $45 billion military, $32.6 billion civilian. The EU's €90 billion facility covers two-thirds of it; the remainder has no committed source. If Washington is pulling back and Brussels cannot unlock the assets, nobody fills the gap.
January 3 · New Committee Chairs
Sen Shaheen retired as Chair of Senate Foreign Relations. Sen Coons is the likely successor and is a Strong Supporter of Ukraine. Other key Committees: Rep Meeks at House Foreign Affairs, who ran the discharge petition on Ukraine aid but led the fight against the Russian sanctions bill. Rep Smith is at House Armed Services. He has publicly called for a $1trln cap on Defense budget. Sen Reed at Senate Armed Services has yet to make any public statements. Sen Warren and Rep Water runs Financial Services, which oversee Sanction policy. Both voted against the Russian Sanctions bill.
March 18 · The sanctions waiver: how to implement the Russian Sanctions bill
The Russian Sanctions bill passed in September. President Trump issued Executive Order 14436 on October 16 which granted a waiver in the name of National Security. None of the provisions of the bill went into effect.
According to law, Congress cannot undo the waiver. It has the power the stop a full Termination of the bill. Only the President or the Secretary of State can revoke the waiver. Rubio spoke about a 60-day study of the economic effects of imposing the sanctions, which would be in mid-December. Rep Meeks introduced the Prohibit Corrupt Russia Oil Deals Act and Rep Fitzpatrick and Bacon led the Ronald Reagan Peace Through Strength Act. Both faces a tough road through the House and a potential Presidential veto.
The last option is to attach the conditions to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), a must-pass piece of legislation. Rep McCaul and Costa signed a letter requesting the waiver be time-limited and tied to specific actions. If entered into the NDAA as an Amendment, it would have teeth.
Even with the waivers, the March 18th deadline forces Treasury to report. How Congress responds will demonstrate their commitment to Ukraine.
Final thoughts:
Elections are one and done, but advocacy continues. Ukraine wasn’t an issue in Tuesday’s election. It is incumbent on us to reach out to offices to ensure they are up to date on the key issues for the American Ukraine relationship.
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