The Shift ◦ May 12th
Last week, Russia held its most subdued Victory Day parade in decades, Ukraine kept up pressure on Russian energy targets, and analysts across the board are starting to agree: the momentum in this war is shifting.
Sunden: Achieve Peace in Ukraine One Verifiable Step at a Time
The path to ending the war in Ukraine runs not through a single grand bargain but through a sequence of small, verifiable steps, beginning with the imperfect May 9 ceasefire and building toward a reciprocal long-range no-strike arrangement between both sides.
The proposal: Ukraine halts strikes beyond 1,250 km from its border; Russia treats the western 20% of Ukrainian territory as a no-strike zone.
Verification via commercial satellite imagery. European-led Skyshield as a consequence of non-compliance.
Is Ukraine Turning the Russian Tide?
Putin's subdued Victory Day parade — stripped of its usual missiles and armor — may be the clearest signal yet that Russia's military fortunes are changing.
The Institute for the Study of War reports that Russian forces are performing worse in Spring 2026 than at any comparable point since the Kremlin's failed push for Donetsk Oblast in 2025.
Ukraine appears to have retaken more territory than it lost in April.
The truncated parade, held under a heavy security blanket, underscored what ISW calls a measurable shift in battlefield initiative.
Russia Is Stumbling on the Battlefield
For the first time in nearly three years, the war's initiative appears to have shifted toward Ukraine. Russian forces suffered a net territorial loss in April — the first since August 2024.
Casualties run at 35,000 per month, and the ratio of killed to wounded has sharply worsened, driven by the dominance of FPV and autonomous drones on the front line.
Deep-strike operations inside Russia are expanding — hitting oil refineries, airfields, and ports as far as the southern Urals. Ukraine surpassed Russia in long-range drone launches for the first time in March.
A Less Muscular Victory Day Parade Shows Putin's Growing Vulnerability
The annual showcase of Russian military power — tanks, nuclear launchers, massed formations across Red Square — was replaced Saturday by a brief march of academy personnel and a flyover by aerobatic teams. No armor. No missiles.
The change was driven by security fears over Ukrainian long-range drone and missile strikes. Mobile internet was cut in Moscow and St. Petersburg; air-defense systems were redeployed from across the country. Zelensky's ironic decree "permitting" the parade to proceed sharpened the symbolism — and the humiliation.
Ukraine is holding the line — on the battlefield, in the skies, and at sea.
Stay informed. Stay engaged. The work continues.
Take Action:
Contact your Members of Congress and urge them to support H.R. 1048 — the bill to increase transparency on foreign influence.
It strengthens disclosure requirements for gifts, contracts, and funding tied to U.S. institutions of higher education connected to hostile foreign regimes, including Russia. The bill passed the House with bipartisan support but remains stalled in the Senate.